tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post6643223038258223545..comments2016-08-17T02:54:29.911-04:00Comments on my Value Idea: Merger Arbitrage : TRBN/ EBSSamihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-36770431122931406542012-10-14T13:50:28.012-04:002012-10-14T13:50:28.012-04:00Hello friend
How are you Today Visit your Web Blo...<br />Hello friend <br />How are you Today Visit your Web Blog Page Got more Information you share Best Information my pray with you and Your Business get more success and Blessings in The name of LORD.please visit our website get more information...<br /><a href="http://www.prizebondlucky.com/" rel="nofollow">prize bond</a><br /><a href="http://www.prizebondlucky.com/" rel="nofollow">prize bonds results</a><br />SEO serviceshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08925030031238332077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-56459505865362503652010-09-12T08:30:31.501-04:002010-09-12T08:30:31.501-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Samihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-84471111965657584712010-09-12T08:30:14.826-04:002010-09-12T08:30:14.826-04:00yes off course. the big risk is if the merger does...yes off course. the big risk is if the merger does not close. maybe this be part of the risk/ reward proposition rather than the implied value of the CRV.<br /><br />but from financing and regulatory perspective it is looks good and chances are there are not big hurdles there.<br /><br />now what it is left is the shareholder vote . <br /><br />i think the market is discounting the CRV due to pfizer cancelling a clinical trial in july and it is expected that may cancel more as they finish integration with weyth.Samihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-51723503307219677732010-09-12T03:16:43.922-04:002010-09-12T03:16:43.922-04:00Thanks for the idea. This has a lot of potential. ...Thanks for the idea. This has a lot of potential. However after some thought, it could equally reflect a 4% chance of failure (numbers are rounded).<br /><br />Assume:<br />* CRV expected value at closing = 50c<br />* 4% chance of failure<br />* TRBN returns to 2.50 on failure ( 52 week low is 2.29)<br />* Assume EBS does not rise on failure<br />* TRBN cost of equity is 13%<br />* Deal is about 3 months from closing<br />* TRBN @ 4.43 , EBS @ 18.48<br /><br /><br />96% chance of 4.685 (current deal price + 50 discounted by 1/4 of 13%) = 4.5<br />4% chance of -1.93 = -.077<br />=4.42<br /><br />You can obviously establish different expected values of the CRVs, your expected losses etc.<br /><br />Given that around 5% of friendly deals fail then TRBN may in fact be overvalued.neilhttp://longterm.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-21990235026712631532010-09-11T21:21:37.404-04:002010-09-11T21:21:37.404-04:00Your table appears to be brokenYour table appears to be brokenneilhttp://longterm.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-8540601162995046862010-09-11T15:51:20.798-04:002010-09-11T15:51:20.798-04:00Very cool, that makes a whole lot more sense :) So...Very cool, that makes a whole lot more sense :) So it looks like a decent risk/reward situation.. let me read up more on these companies and see if i still feel like going ahead with this arb. play. <br /><br />thanks a lot!<br /><br />-JoeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-20381989300376602822010-09-11T14:54:29.959-04:002010-09-11T14:54:29.959-04:00i did not explain it properly.
so first establish ...i did not explain it properly.<br />so first establish the arbitrage buy buying lets say 2242 shares of TRBN and shorting 368 shares of EBS.<br /><br />if the acquisition closes,in Q4 you will get the following:<br />cash : $1.365per share<br />EBS Shares worth: $3.03per share of TRBN held<br />total $4.4 (TRBN trades at $4.42)<br /><br />and 2242 CRVs entitling you to claim $1.9 per CRV if clinical studies are successful according to predefined milestones.<br /><br />so the implied value of the CRV is 2 cents( TRBN current price $4.4 - merger consideration $1.365+ $3.03)<br /><br />in scenario 1, if the CRV pays the maximum amount you will get $1.9 per share or ($1.9* 2242) your cost is $44.84 , or( .02* 2242)<br /><br />in scenario 2 if the CRV does not pay at all your will lose $44.84. <br /><br />hope that helps.Samihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-52010408035795643832010-09-11T13:48:03.687-04:002010-09-11T13:48:03.687-04:00Sorry i am not sure i understand the CRV math:( I&...Sorry i am not sure i understand the CRV math:( I'm a relative newbie.<br /><br />Example:<br />1. Let's say i buy $10K worth of TRBN (i.e. approx. 2242 shares)<br /><br />Scenario 1:<br />The acquisition goes through:<br />1. I get $4.55 per share.<br />&& the CRV is paid out<br /><br />Scenario 2:<br />The acquisition goes through:<br />1. I get $4.55 per share <br />&& the CRV is not paid out<br /><br />What is the upside per share in Scenario #1?<br /><br />Thanks in advance for the clarification.<br /><br />-JoeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com