tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post967450984367199377..comments2023-11-02T05:09:10.845-04:00Comments on my Value Idea: Value idea: Peyto Energy TrustSamihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-22012277590779150712009-09-27T08:29:25.918-04:002009-09-27T08:29:25.918-04:00Peyto is not unique there are many gas med caps th...Peyto is not unique there are many gas med caps that offer good value. <br /><br />I think those gas plays will become cheaper still in spring, if gas says at this level. The annual reserves figures will reflect lower gas prices so the NPV of recoverable reserves will be lower. Banks set their credit lines based on that figure so some will face credit lines cutbacks leading to liquidity issues. <br /><br />so I am willing to buy more at that time. It is interesting area and a lot of good plays can be found.Samihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-36945657584286855662009-09-27T01:32:49.149-04:002009-09-27T01:32:49.149-04:00Sami,
Another Natural Gas Play you might be inter...Sami,<br /><br />Another Natural Gas Play you might be interested in:<br /><br />http://www.valueinvestigator.com/en/valuefavourites/dayun.phpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-52177419926329955722009-09-14T18:31:11.485-04:002009-09-14T18:31:11.485-04:00I did buy @ 9.2.
you can read Handbook of Canadi...I did buy @ 9.2.<br /><br />you can read Handbook of Canadian Security Analysis there is a chapter about resources it is a very good start.<br /><br />also another good valuation to these companies is Price per cash flow or funds from operationsSamihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-24218318272821871222009-09-14T18:20:57.029-04:002009-09-14T18:20:57.029-04:00Thank you very much for that explanation Sami. Wha...Thank you very much for that explanation Sami. What resources or literature do you recommend for someone who wants to learn more about analyzing a resource based company?<br /><br />Are you planning to take a position in this company?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-36763365107036446742009-09-14T16:11:57.937-04:002009-09-14T16:11:57.937-04:00by evaluating its reserves in the ground. All reso...by evaluating its reserves in the ground. All resource companies publish NPV (Net present Value) figure. It is a calculation of the discounted future generation if they sell their reserves. They forecast prices using the forward price curve and I agree that this can fluctuate based on the price of the commodity. but if you use large discount rate you may be can get a good margin of safety. <br /><br />But your point is very valid about resource companies. You will have to take a view on the underlying commodity if you buy their stock.<br /><br />I figure it trading at half of what is fair value based on their reserves. so a range in 18-20 is fair value for Peyto. Last year it was trading above $20 but nat gas prices were around $6-7. <br /><br />How low can gas price go I figure not much more. but it could stay in this range for a while as supply work it self out.Samihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17866240785310374236noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3190293047729939700.post-43831225268317379372009-09-14T15:35:07.419-04:002009-09-14T15:35:07.419-04:00What is your intrinsic value range on the company?...What is your intrinsic value range on the company? As well, how do you value a commodity company when its value is dictated by the price of that particular commodity?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com