July 30, 2009

Exiting Bank Loans (PHD)

The run up in high yield and credit was incredible. Actually most credit instruments have performed better than equity. If you look at the performance of high yield index and leveraged loans they have outperformed S&P as can be seen in the chart below:
Actually most credit indices have gotten to the same pricing level of September last year. For example, LCDX, a leveraged loan index I have used to price Senior Bank Loan is priced now around 94 cents on the dollar, a similar price to where it was trading before Sep 2008, while its level in December were 70 cents on the dollar. That is some appreciation.

I am afraid that there are still a lot of risks in the economy and corporate leverage to warrant a price level to pre September 2008 levels. Also recoveries are below norm due to the high leverage, which lessen the attractiveness. That's why I will take my money out of PHD, senior bank loans closed end fund, right now. I may be early to sell but I do not like how far and quick the run up in the price. Also a 50% capital appreciation plus dividends is not something to sneeze at.

July 23, 2009

Sold Teck

I sold half of my position in Teck Resources today. The reasons why I bought Teck was a bet on the assets that the company owns. The bet was Teck's management team will be able to monetize value of its assets to repay debt and manage the upcoming debt maturities, that resulted form the Fording Coal aqusition.

The bet worked beyond what I expected with the sale of equity to Chinese Government. I thought the controlling family won't dilute their ownership but being pragmatic they did the deal. So that the debt issue was resolved the reason of the initial investment is gone so should my position in Teck.

I have not been active recently as I do not want to chase anything at the moment. I could not find any thing interesting to research but that may be mostly due to time limitations. It will be interesting once September rolls in. I think things might change then.