November 20, 2007

Emerging economies have not become ‘decoupled’ / Columnists / John Kay - Emerging economies have not become ‘decoupled’

The article is a great read to rebut the whole notion of decoupling. Usually enthusiasm and euphoria will come with new ways to justify unjustified price appreciation and manias. "it is different this time around" and bobbing heads will give you all kind of reasons for that. The high tech bubble of 2000 came with all kind of different valuation models for Internet start up to justify sky high valuations, but surprise surprise it is always earnings and cash flows.

Investing is not about fads and new way of thinking. Things will be always be the same, investing is holding good quality assets at good prices. It is the same with emerging markets. Emerging markets have built huge price appreciation due strong economic activity in the world and in the US as well. so the old saying if the US sneezes the rest of the world will catch a cold.
So stay away from the "it is different this time around" crowd and stick to a simple and systematic way to search for your investment.

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