January 4, 2008

A quote to remember...

Buffett once said:

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.

I thought of this quote while reading some reports where the author was comparing past economic history with current events to draw conclusions about future market and economy directions. May be it is relevant but I am very skeptical about these comparisons because of human behaviour. History can't resemble itself otherwise it would be predictable and we would alter our behaviour accordingly rendering history unrepeatable. If that makes any sense?

My point is predictive abilities of past events is highly suspect if at all relevant. Markets and economy directions are anyone's guess and certainly past events are not going to help.


living off dividends said...

read "Extraordinary popular delusions and madness of crowds" if you doubt that history repeats itself.

its one of my favorite investment books. check out my others.

Sami said...

Thanks I will check it out