February 14, 2008

Value in today's market according to Bill Miller

Bill miller the star fund manager offers his views on the current market conditions in his quarterly letter to investors. You can read the letter here.

What I wanted to highlight is his view on where you can find value investing opportunities, the letter describes the
...poorest performing parts of the market, housing, financials, and the consumer sector—with the exception of consumer staples—are at valuation levels last seen in late 1990 and early 1991, an exceptionally propitious time to have bought them. The rest of the market is not expensive, but valuations cannot compare to those in these depressed sectors.
These are the groups that I have picked some stocks from like BofA, LOW and USB. I am still researching to pick more in this are particularly retailers as they are extremely beaten in this market.

The letter also gives me some confirmation on my approach and thinking. I think it is important to validate one' views by an accomplished professionals like Bill Miller.

He also notes that the bond market is expensive as I have posted in the past as he writes that
... government bonds, which have performed so wonderfully as the traditional safe haven during times of turmoil, are very expensive. (In bond land, the only values are in the so-called spread product, and there are some quite good values there.) The 10-year Treasury trades at almost 30x earnings6, compared to about 14 times for the S&P 500. The two-year Treasury yields under 2%, and is thus valued at over 50x earnings!
If you look around you, you will find a lot of gloom and doom talk by media and blogs however if you watch some of the richest investors recent moves like Buffett, Ross, Miller and others, you can find them getting really busy these days with business deals and new investment. I will take my cue from them.

No comments: