March 5, 2008

Credit Crises going on its 10 th Month

The credit crises started in June of last year; it has been dragging on for more than 9 months now. This is by far the longest any credit crises has lasted. The LTCM default, Russia debt default and the Mexican peso crises were way shorter in duration than this one. The bad news it seems that there is no ending in sight. Personal and Business defaults are increasing, municipal debt is being trashed, lending rates are moving in the opposite direction to the fed rates, and... you get the picture.

Some have given the explanation that the crises will go on until the consumer recovers or stop being exhausted as John Fitzsimons of American Securities said:
I think the [current market conditions] are going to be a long process, and I don't think it gets better until the consumer stops being exhausted,
I have an alternate theory to explain the "credit crises".

May be things are just getting back to normal lending practices; only those who deserve the credit get it. People and businesses alike got accustomed to easy and cheap money to buy, finance and do deals, so any thing other than that environment will feel as a crises.

I think the US got used to spending with no control and it is catching up to them; this will take some time to adjust to. But it will work it self through the system with time. Strict lending standards should be the norm and a "crises". Banks should be lend to those who will be able to pay it back with satisfactory return.

So may be this is the new environment that we should operated in and just stop calling it a "crises".

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